Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
