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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still